Gold price may rise further

Investors find ‘safe haven’ in precious metal

By CHOONG EN HAN (The Star)

KUALA LUMPUR: The price of gold may surge further following Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgrade on US credit ratings as investors look for a “safe haven” in the precious metal.

The price of gold climbed above US$1,700 an ounce yesterday following the downgrade of long-term US credit rating.

“The unprecedented S&P downgrade sent shock waves over global equities and commodities markets, driving gold prices to record highs as investors sought the bullion as a safe haven,” said Phillip Futures Pte Ltd analyst Ong Yi Ling.

The next key focus would be on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for today. Investors are looking for indications from the Federal Reserve's policy setting committee on its next course of action.

“We expect the Fed to continue its low interest rates, but the wild card would be hints of possible future quantitative easing measures which would benefit gold prices,” said Ong.

Singapore-based Phillip Futures also raised its year-end target of gold to US$1,800 an ounce, with anticipated slower US economic growth coupled with Europe's sovereign debt problems.

“Gold price has gone up by 14% since July, and the market may claw back some of its gains in the near term as the sudden surge in price may just be a knee jerk reaction towards recent developments,” Ong said.

Meanwhile, a Singapore-based head of bullion said gold price might still have some upside amid global economic uncertainties, with the price for the precious metal likely to hover around US$1,800 an ounce by year-end.

“Market talk is that prices may hit US$2,000 by year-end, but personally I would not be so bullish, as we are currently at the crossroads; if the economy starts to shrink, gold prices would follow suit,” he said.

Investors seeking safe haven bet on gold

PETALING JAYA: Gold prices are on the way up again as concerns over debt levels in the United States and the eurozone prompt investors to move their funds to safe-haven assets.

Investors were also betting that rising agriculture commodity prices would mean higher food prices after the Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot Index, a measure of 24 commodities, rose for the third consecutive week.

Gold, also seen as a hedge against inflation and volatility, has seen gains since 2009 as an impasse over how to lower the US deficit continued.

Investor fears have also heightened amid concerns that deficit levels in eurozone members Italy and Spain could not be sustained in the long term.

A Bloomberg report said gold futures climbed for nine straight sessions to July 15, which is the longest rally since November 2009.

Analysts who spoke to StarBiz said prices would rise above the US$1,600 per ounce level in the near term due to inflation in China and the debt crises in the United States and the eurozone.

Singapore-based Phillip Futures Pte Ltd analyst Ong Yi Ling said gold was likely to rise to US$1,650 in the August to September period as demand was traditionally strong during that time.

She said that with Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke not discounting another round of fiscal stimulus, this signalled to the markets that the recovery in the world's largest economy could still be a drag on global growth.

Ong added that demand for gold in China was high as both an investment and retail purchase. Investors like it as a store of value and hedge against inflation while rising incomes have allowed retail customers to buy the metal, according to Ong.

She, however, noted that price volatility would increase as prices rose.

Meanwhile, a Singapore-based gold trader attached to a bank said gold prices would likely rise to US$1,615 in the next one to two weeks before the market rebalanced from the price rise.

“Funds are flowing to gold from securities due to the volatility of the US and European markets but may return to the US market as second-quarter financial results may beat expectations,” he said.

According to Brad Durham, an EPFR managing director, there was fear in the markets of a potential downgrade of US debt and more negative news from the eurozone.

“It was a good, old-fashioned flight-to-safety trade,” he said in a Bloomberg report.

Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission also showed hedge funds and other money managers lifted their net-long gold position by 25%, which is the biggest jump since the week ended Sept 8, 2009.

Another Way to Look at Cheap Gold Stocks

I got this article from my friends,Alfian..i just want to share...good article

By Jeff Clark, editor, S&A Short Report
Friday, May 20, 2011

The gold sector looks ready to bounce.

It's been a rough year for gold stocks. Even though the price of gold is up 5% so far in 2011 (near $1,500 an ounce), gold stocks are underwater. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), for example, is down about 10% for the year.

And as my colleague Steve Sjuggerud pointed out, you see the same pattern over the longer term, too:

Over the last three years, the price of gold is up over 60%... But gold stocks (as measured by the big gold stock fund GDX) are up less than 20%.

This action has a lot of gold stock investors scratching their heads.

With the commodities complex selling off a bit recently in reaction to a bouncing dollar, many gold bugs are throwing in the towel. They're selling their stocks. And in the process, they're creating some bargains in the gold sector.

Lots of big-name gold stocks like Newmont Mining (NEM) and Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) are trading at historically low valuations. The gold sector itself trades at a discount to the S&P 500. The dividend yields on many of the larger companies are higher than the rate on two-year Treasurys.

You don't often see gold stocks trading this cheap. The sector is approaching oversold levels and is at least due for at a short-term bounce.

Take a look at this chart of the gold sector bullish percent index (BPGDM)...

A bullish percent index (BPI) is a measure of overbought and oversold conditions for a market sector. A sector is overbought when the BPI runs above 80, and it's oversold when the BPI drops below 30. Typically, the best time to buy into a sector is after the BPI has reached oversold levels and starts to move higher.

As you can see from the chart above, the best buying opportunity of the past two years for gold stocks was in February 2010 (the blue circle).

Of course, we don't always have to wait for the "best" time to buy to take advantage of opportunities. The red circles on the chart indicate "good" spots to jump into the gold sector. Each spot occurred right after a deep decline in the sector and proceeded with a sharp rally higher. The BPI dropped sharply each time, but didn't quite fall to "oversold" levels.

Look at how GDX behaved each time...

So while the best time to jump into the gold sector is when the BPI drops below 30 and turns higher, the BPI can point out other good times to buy, too. I believe we're approaching one of those times right now.

The gold sector bullish percent index is acting similar to how it was last year. It bottomed in late January/early February... ran higher for a few months... then dropped hard in May. That action led to a bounce in the sector that popped GDX 15% higher in one month.

That's the sort of bounce we should see this year as well.

It's certainly possible, however, that the gold sector will just keep dropping until the BPGDM drops below 30 and the sector becomes officially oversold. You'll want to have plenty of cash available to buy gold stocks if we ever get to that point.

But given the bargain basement pricing of many gold stocks, it's worth it to take a small bullish position in the sector right now.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

Dont: Use paper currency, not gold dinar

KUALA LUMPUR: Islamic countries should continue to use paper currency instead of gold dinar, said professor of comparative economic history at International Centre for Education in Islamic Finance Dr Murat Cizakca.

History had shown that the return to coinage system could increase interest rates and inflation would be difficult to control, he said.

Speaking at a public lecture on Islamic Gold Dinar: Myths and Reality organised by Association of Chartered Islamic Finance Professionals and Inceif yesterday, he said money should serve as a medium of exchange, not as a commodity.

“We need to continue with paper currency, and the central banks controlling paper currency should have full autonomy,” he said.

He added that gold supply was dominated by non-Islamic countries.

“The gold dinar will be exposed to speculation as the gold price also has its ups and downs. Islamic countries should continue to use paper currency and increase trade among each other,” he said. - Bernama

Prof. Dr. Murat Çizakça
Professor of Islamic Finance at INCEIF
Member of PDP(Senate), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Prof. Murat Cizakca received his B.A degree in economics from the University of Leicester in England (1968) and M.A. and PhD degrees also in economics from the University of Pennsylvania in the U.S.A (1978). His main specialisation is economic history and he is known for his application of the principles of economic history to Islamic business and finance.

Umar Ibrahim Vadillo - Interview 1 - Gold Dinar

The Islamic Gold DInar

This Paper Prepared by Craig R. Smith, CEO of SATC (Swiss America Trading Corporation)

A.D.700 – A.D. 1924: From the very beginning, Muslims used a gold coin called a Gold Dinar as their form of money. The Gold Dinar remained the official Islamic currency until the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1924… when it disappeared for 77 years.

But on Nov. 7, 2001 — less than two months after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 — the Islamic Dinar was officially re-launched by the Islamic Mint in West Malaysia and is now available to the public.

Although a beautiful coin, the Gold Dinar could pose a serious threat to the U.S. economy! In fact, its supporters believe the Gold Dinar will become the official currency of more than 1.5 BILLION Muslims worldwide. Now radical Islam is urging Muslims worldwide to drop the U.S. Dollar and adopt the Gold Dinar as their primary currency!

WHY IS THE DINAR A THREAT TO THE U.S. DOLLAR?

Since the reissue of the Gold Dinar in November 2001, the U.S. Dollar has dropped to a RECORD LOW against the euro… while the price of gold has SOARED from about $260 per ounce to an 8-year RECORD HIGH of over $410 per ounce. And this is just the beginning!

As the dollar continues to drop, the priced-for-perfection stock market could be impacted dramatically. Unprepared investors could lose BILLIONS! It’s no coincidence that Osama bin Laden chose to strike the World Trade Center on Sept. 11… Why?

Because, the World Trade Center represented the heart and soul of the U.S. economy. And destroying the U.S. economy is the main pillar of bin Laden’s strategy to bring down the United States.

Back in 1997, there was a huge and devastating currency raid by the famous trader, George Soros, who leveled Asian monetary units and caused the major Asian economies to falter. It is true that some of those economies have not fully recovered. However, it is also true that history may point to this currency raid and raider as the germination of the seed for the uniting factor of Islamic economic power that changed the economic and monetary world.

FROM OIL FOR DOLLARS … TO … OIL FOR GOLD!

On Jan 18 Forbes reported that Sell oil for gold, Mahathir tells Saudi Arabia … “Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad said on Sunday that Saudi Arabia should sell oil for gold, not dollars, to avoid being “short-changed” by a decline in the U.S. currency … He suggested countries tally their total annual imports and exports and settle the difference at the end of the year in “gold dinars.”

Recent news supports the idea that the Gold Dinar, with support from 53 other Islamic nations, is a planned offensive against the use of the dollar as a settlement currency for oil. It is perceived, and correctly so, that the Islamic world is controlled via the use of the US dollar as the main settlement currency.

When I say “controlled” I mean whatever happens economically in the USA is exported there via the dollar. Dollars exchanged for the Gold Dinar currency as a measure for gold settlements quarterly or gold convertible to pay for certain oil imports would end all the debate of whether or not gold has a place in the monetary system.

CAN RADICAL ISLAM CONVINCE MUSLIMS TO USE THE GOLD DINAR INSTEAD OF THE DOLLAR?

IF it was just the radical fundamentalists that were pushing the gold Dinar, you could presume that this movement would never get off the ground, BUT it is not.

On Jan. 8, 2004 the Malaysian Star reports, “Malaysian gold mine bought to promote gold dinar — MALAYSIA-BASED IGD Practice (Labuan) Ltd is buying into a gold mine in Kazakhstan in a bid to promote the use of gold dinar globally.”

According to John Myers, Outstanding Investments A 1,300-year-old gold dagger; “Many Muslims believe that the United States is responsible for the enormous devastation suffered by hundreds of millions of Muslims during the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997. This ANGER will provide a powerful incentive for Muslims to get even with the United States by selling dollars and buying Islamic Gold Dinars.

Just take a look at this quote from the Islamic Mint Web site: “… he heard the Messenger of Allah say: “‘A time is certainly coming over mankind in which there will be nothing [left] which will be of use save a dinar…’” – Imam Ahmad ibn Hanbal

I think it’s obvious. These folks don’t just want the dollar to drop, they want the U.S. dollar to disappear. Permanently!

Last year SwissAmerica.com posted a ground-breaking story by Jim Sinclair, “The Gold Dinar: A Nuclear Wild Card,” which quoted the Islamic “AL-FATH AL-’ALI AL-MALIKI” (PP. 164-165)

“This Fatwa considers paper-money to be fulus, because it only represents money and does not have value as merchandise. It follows that since Zakat cannot be paid in fulus, which has no value as merchandise, it cannot be paid in paper-money, which value as weight of paper is null. On this basis, it becomes clear the urgent need to restore the use of the Dinar and the Dirham as payment of Zakat. If the millions of Muslims who now make their payment of Zakat in paper money would do it in newly minted Dinars and Dirham’s, they will put in circulation millions of gold and silver coins into the mainstream of daily commercial activities of our communities. That single act will became the most important political act of the century, opening the path towards the establishment our own halal free currency breaking away from the usurious financial system. The return to the payment of zakat in gold and silver is an essential part of the reestablishment of Islam.”

Those are serious words and should not be taken lightly. You see, the establishment of a gold-based currency is rebellion against the IMF as it is distinctly forbidden under IMF rules.

RESTORING THE FOURTH PILLAR OF ISLAM: ZAKAT IN GOLD & SILVER

Here is where the Gold Dinar story gets interesting — and even somewhat ironic to those who understand the Judeo-Christian principle of both tithing and the biblical requirement of just weights and measures in an honest money system.

According to Islam, Muhammad was reported to have said, “Islam is based upon five pillars:

to make Shahadataan (declaration of faith)

to establish Salaah (formal prayer)

to make Sawm (fasting in the month of Ramadaan)

to give Zakat (or Zakaah) (charity)

to perform Hajj (pilgrimage to the Ka’bah).”

It is this fourth “pillar” that I want to focus on for a moment. The fundamentalist branch of Islam (about 10% of 1.3 billion followers – that’s 130 million! – about 1/3 of U.S. population) holds to the belief system stated above … “The return to the payment of Zakat in gold and silver is an essential part of the reestablishment of Islam.”

The literal meaning of the word Zakat is: grow (in goodness) or ‘increase’, ‘purifying’ or ‘making pure’. The vital importance of Zakat is reflected in Islamic law: “My mercy encompasses all things, but I will specify it for the righteous who give Zakat” (7:156). “Zakat must be given away “on the day of harvest” (6:141). Whenever we receive “net income,” the “known amount” of Zakat should be paid or set aside. This known amount is 2.5%.” SOURCE: Submission.org

According to Viewislam.com…”Zakat (or Zakaah) is an obligatory form of charity on savings. It is not an income tax, but a savings tax. Its major recipients are the working poor, who cannot meet all of their needs without some additional help, and the destitute, who cannot even meet their basic needs. It is also used to pay off the debts of those who are unable to pay off their own debts, to free slaves and ransom prisoners of war and to reconcile the hearts of new Muslims who may not yet have a firm foundation of faith. Other lawful recipients are stranded travelers, those engaged in jihad and employees of the state working to collect and distribute zakaah. Their wages come from it.

“Zakaah is due on the following forms of wealth: Gold and silver, Business inventory, Livestock, Agricultural produce and even buried treasure. The amount due is 2.5% of savings when it reaches the equivalent value of 85 grams (approximately three ounces) of gold. This minimum amount on which zakaah is due is called the nisaab. Although some scholars say that money should be pegged to the nisaab of silver, i.e., 595 grams, the majority considers gold to be a more reasonable peg for developed economies.” [The Practice of Zakat by country]

So, under Islamic law Zakat is a form of Muslim tithing to God for the support of the less fortunate or jihad — and it is to be paid in gold or silver, not paper currencies without any intrinsic value.

It is clear that the restoration of a gold and silver dinar is part of the mission of Islamic fundamentalist and, if successful, it could send the value of the U.S dollar spiraling downward if the Arab world decides to start valuing the price of oil in gold dinars instead of U.S. dollars.

From http://mohammedfikri.wordpress.com

Dinar not for trading

Wednesday November 10, 2010

IPOH: The gold dinar and silver dirham currency to be introduced by the Perak state government is not meant to be used for trading but only for investment purposes, said Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Dr Zambry Abdul Kadir.

"The plan to introduce the dinar and dirham was made because many people prefer to keep the currency as they feel the value will increase.

"That is the basis of introducing the dinar and dirham," he told reporters after chairing the state exco meeting here yesterday.

He added that Perak would have no problem cooperating with Kelantan, which was attempting to use the gold dinar and silver dirham in all its transactions, including for paying civil servants' salaries.

Dr Zambry was commenting on news report that the Kelantan government was keen to cooperate with Perak to popularise the use of the dinar and dirham.

Kelantan economic planning, finance and welfare committee chairman Datuk Husam Musa was reported to have made the offer after Perak announced its plan to introduce the currency.

Dr Zambry said the gold dinar and silver dirham should not be used as a medium of transaction as it could cause problems to the country's economic system.

Moreover, he added, the Federal Government had set a medium of exchange in the country, that was through monetary currency rather than through gold or silver.

Meanwhile, in KOTA BARU, Hussam said Kelantan may pay half of the salaries of its state assemblymen in gold dinar and silver dirham.

He told the state assembly yesterday that the proposal would be forwarded to the state Treasury for its and the state government's consideration.

However, he added that the proposed payment in dinar and dirham would only be made to assemblymen who chose the new mode.

Those who disagreed would continue to be paid their full salary in Malaysian ringgit, he said in a supplementary question from Arifa­billah Ibrahim (PAS - Dabong).