Gold price may rise further

Investors find ‘safe haven’ in precious metal

By CHOONG EN HAN (The Star)

KUALA LUMPUR: The price of gold may surge further following Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgrade on US credit ratings as investors look for a “safe haven” in the precious metal.

The price of gold climbed above US$1,700 an ounce yesterday following the downgrade of long-term US credit rating.

“The unprecedented S&P downgrade sent shock waves over global equities and commodities markets, driving gold prices to record highs as investors sought the bullion as a safe haven,” said Phillip Futures Pte Ltd analyst Ong Yi Ling.

The next key focus would be on the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for today. Investors are looking for indications from the Federal Reserve's policy setting committee on its next course of action.

“We expect the Fed to continue its low interest rates, but the wild card would be hints of possible future quantitative easing measures which would benefit gold prices,” said Ong.

Singapore-based Phillip Futures also raised its year-end target of gold to US$1,800 an ounce, with anticipated slower US economic growth coupled with Europe's sovereign debt problems.

“Gold price has gone up by 14% since July, and the market may claw back some of its gains in the near term as the sudden surge in price may just be a knee jerk reaction towards recent developments,” Ong said.

Meanwhile, a Singapore-based head of bullion said gold price might still have some upside amid global economic uncertainties, with the price for the precious metal likely to hover around US$1,800 an ounce by year-end.

“Market talk is that prices may hit US$2,000 by year-end, but personally I would not be so bullish, as we are currently at the crossroads; if the economy starts to shrink, gold prices would follow suit,” he said.

Investors seeking safe haven bet on gold

PETALING JAYA: Gold prices are on the way up again as concerns over debt levels in the United States and the eurozone prompt investors to move their funds to safe-haven assets.

Investors were also betting that rising agriculture commodity prices would mean higher food prices after the Standard & Poor's GSCI Spot Index, a measure of 24 commodities, rose for the third consecutive week.

Gold, also seen as a hedge against inflation and volatility, has seen gains since 2009 as an impasse over how to lower the US deficit continued.

Investor fears have also heightened amid concerns that deficit levels in eurozone members Italy and Spain could not be sustained in the long term.

A Bloomberg report said gold futures climbed for nine straight sessions to July 15, which is the longest rally since November 2009.

Analysts who spoke to StarBiz said prices would rise above the US$1,600 per ounce level in the near term due to inflation in China and the debt crises in the United States and the eurozone.

Singapore-based Phillip Futures Pte Ltd analyst Ong Yi Ling said gold was likely to rise to US$1,650 in the August to September period as demand was traditionally strong during that time.

She said that with Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke not discounting another round of fiscal stimulus, this signalled to the markets that the recovery in the world's largest economy could still be a drag on global growth.

Ong added that demand for gold in China was high as both an investment and retail purchase. Investors like it as a store of value and hedge against inflation while rising incomes have allowed retail customers to buy the metal, according to Ong.

She, however, noted that price volatility would increase as prices rose.

Meanwhile, a Singapore-based gold trader attached to a bank said gold prices would likely rise to US$1,615 in the next one to two weeks before the market rebalanced from the price rise.

“Funds are flowing to gold from securities due to the volatility of the US and European markets but may return to the US market as second-quarter financial results may beat expectations,” he said.

According to Brad Durham, an EPFR managing director, there was fear in the markets of a potential downgrade of US debt and more negative news from the eurozone.

“It was a good, old-fashioned flight-to-safety trade,” he said in a Bloomberg report.

Data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission also showed hedge funds and other money managers lifted their net-long gold position by 25%, which is the biggest jump since the week ended Sept 8, 2009.

Dr M: Banking, finance need to be regulated

Uncontrolled markets will result in sustained recession

KUALA LUMPUR: The world has to brace itself for a sustained recession if banking and financial markets were left to regulate themselves in the free market.

Former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said governments must continue to oversee the regulation of banks and financial institutions.

“Unless the Government oversees and limits the ability for the market to abuse (the banking systems) then, of course, we are going to have this kind of (global economic) crisis.

“This crisis has taken place because the market is left to regulate itself. But instead of regulating itself, it just finds new ways around the regulations and that’s what caused the present crisis,” he said.

Dr Mahathir likened the free market to a religion which could not be questioned.

“This idea of a free market has become almost like a religion. You cannot question it, even when it fails,” he said.

Dr Mahathir said the present world financial crisis was a result of “rampant” abuse of the financial and banking system on a massive scale.

“And the abuses became rampant because of the idea that governments must not interfere with the financial market. (That) the market it seems would regulate itself,” he explained.

He urged for the gold dinar to be institutionalised as the standard against which all currencies were measured for the sake of stability.

“It’s something tangible and something that has value anywhere in the world,” he said.

However, he said the gold dinar system, if implemented, should only be used for settlements of international trade.

Dr Mahathir also criticised the continued use of the US dollar as a base currency for exchange and trade.

“The US dollar has got no value whatsoever. It’s got no backing, no reserve. But we accept it as if it has some value and because we accept it, it has value,” he said.

He said currency trading was reported to be worth as much as US$4 trillion a day now, larger than during the 1997 Asian currency crisis. In contrast, he said US$4 trillion was equal to the total production of goods and services in Germany in a year.

“The US$4 trillion expended in Germany created much wealth for the country and the people. But what does the US$1 trillion of trade in currency do?

“Apart from a few fund managers and rich investors becoming very rich, the contribution to job creation, business growth and general economic development was almost nil,” he said.

By LESTER KONG
lester@thestar.com.my